East-Western Dynamic and Driving Factors of Cholera Epidemics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Harry César Kayembe Ntumba1, Doudou Batumbo1, Jean-Marie Kayembe Ntumba2, Julien Ntaongo1, Lucien Bisimwa1, Tonton Paul Vita1 and Didier
Bompangue Nkoko1,3,4

1Training and Research Unit on Ecology and Control of Infectious Diseases, Department of Microbiology and Medical Biology, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
2Department of Internal Medecine, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
3Chrono-Environnement Laboratory, CNRS, UMR 6249, Bourgogne Franche-Comté University, France
4Ministry of Health, Democratic Republic of the Congo


The El Niño’s impact on the incidence and endemicity of cholera is highlighted in coastal regions of South-Eastern Asia and inland regions of sub-Saharan Africa, namely in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.
This region is also a site of recurrent armed conflicts with subsequent internally displaced persons. However, the western DRC is sporadically affected consecutively to cholera spreading from the eastern endemic foci. We hypothesized that El Niño and both eastern armed conflicts and IDPs may play a central role in the spread of
cholera epidemics in the DRC. Using Binomial Regression Models, our study showed that El Niño events were the main predictors of cholera epidemics spreading out of eastern endemic provinces. It implies that we may be able to provide an epidemiological tool to forecast the risk of cholera in the DRC.



SM Journal of Infectious Diseases